Airtricity League Premier Division

Friday 24 May 2013

Limerick FC v Sligo Rovers, Thomond Park (7.05pm GMT; ‘live’ RTE 2)

Draws are the exception when these two sides meet. In their 52 meetings since football in the Republic of Ireland changed to a two-tier system involving promotion and relegation in 1985, only six have ended all square. While Sligo are unbeaten in four games in the 12-team Airtricity League Premier Division  (ALPD), three of those matches have ended in draws. It has allowed St Patrick’s Athletic, who have won three of their last four, to draw level at the top of the table with the defending champions. Sligo won the reverse fixture 2-1 at the Showgrounds on Saturday 23 March. The Bit O’Red are unbeaten in six games in all competitions. Limerick have won just one of their last five in the league (one win, two draws and two defeats).

RATEFORM PREDICTS: Away win.

POISSON DISTRIBUTION PREDICTS: According to the goal probability distribution data, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win to Sligo. There is an 18.4 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 57pc probability Limerick will get no goals. By the same token, there is a 32pc chance they will score precisely one. So you should not entirely rule out the possibility of them scoring. Likewise, there is a 25.9pc probability Sligo will score precisely two goals. So you should not rule out the possibility of them scoring more than just one. There is an 8.3pc chance of the game ending in a 2-1 win to Sligo, which, of course, was also the outcome in the reverse fixture in March.

SCORE PREDICTION HEURISTIC SUGGESTS: Away win, 1-0 (18.4pc).

MICK CONROY PREDICTS: Draw.

OVER/UNDER 2.5-GOAL RATIO: 55.5 per cent (decimal odds 1.80) of the sides’ combined total of games in the league have ended in Over 2.5 goals. 44.5pc (2.25 in decimal odds) have resulted in Under 2.5 goals.

OVERALL OBSERVATION/RECOMMENDATION: All three of our predictive methods favour a win for Sligo. Only our resident analyst Mick Conroy sees Limerick avoiding defeat. Of seven games against other top-seven sides, Sligo have won by more than one goal on just two occasions (v Dundalk 3-1, Oriel Park, Tuesday 19 March and v Derry City 3-0, Showgrounds, Monday 6 May), so there seems little point backing them to cover a spread on the handicap. irishfootieindex is happy to recommend Sligo to win (1.80, Paddy Power) and Under 2.5 goals (1.61, Paddy Power).

Airtricity League Premier Division

Friday 24 May 2013

Bohemians v St Patrick’s Athletic, Dalymount Park (7.45pm GMT)

St Pat’s are unbeaten in the sides’ last eight league meetings (three wins and five draws). Eight of the sides’ last 10 league meetings have ended in Under 2.5 goals (two of the three meetings in 2012 being the exceptions). The Saints are also unbeaten at Dalymount Park on their last six visits (two wins and four draws) to the Phibsborough venue in the league. Liam Buckley’s side, who could go top of the table today (Friday 24 May), are unbeaten in 11 games in all competitions (eight wins and three draws). They have not conceded a goal in the first half of their last six games in all competitions. In fact, they have kept clean sheets in the opening period of 15 of 18 games in 2013. They have not been beaten since they lost 2-1 against Dundalk in the 12-team Airtricity League Premier Division (ALPD) at Richmond Park on Tuesday 2 April. They are looking for a SEVENTH straight road victory in the league. The reverse fixture, at Richmond Park on Monday 29 April, ended in a 1-1 draw.

RATEFORM PREDICTS: Away win.

SIMPLE POISSON MODEL PREDICTS: According to the goal probability distribution data, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for St Pat’s. There is a 19.2 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 65.9pc probability Bohemians will get no goals. There is a 17.7pc chance of a 2-0 win for St Pat’s.

SCORE PREDICTION HEURISTIC SUGGESTS: Away win, 4-0 (yes, we agree, such an outcome seems a bit far-fetched, but the main message is that the score prediction heuristic also forecasts a win for St Pat’s).

MICK CONROY PREDICTS: Away win.

OVER/UNDER 2.5-GOAL RATIO: 46.4 per cent (decimal odds 2.15) of the sides’ combined total of games in the league have ended in Over 2.5 goals. 53.6pc (1.87 in decimal odds) have resulted in Under 2.5 goals.

OVERALL OBSERVATION/RECOMMENDATION: All three of our predictive methods favour a win for St Pat’s, as does our resident analyst Mick Conroy. In the half-time/full-time market, it is more likely to be St Pat’s/St Pat’s, which has occurred in six (42.9pc) of the Saints’ 14 league matches in 2013, rather than draw/St Pat’s, which has occurred three times (21.4pc). They have also won eight of their 14 matches to nil (2.20, Paddy Power).

Airtricity League Premier Division

Friday 24 May 2013

Bray Wanderers v Drogheda United, Carlisle Grounds (7.45pm GMT)

Drogheda have won the sides’ last four meetings in the league. All four games ended in Over 2.5 goals. In fact, the sides’ last six meetings in the league have all resulted in three or more goals. After a 10-game run without a win in the 12-team Airtricity League Premier Division (ALPD), Bray are unbeaten in three matches (two wins and a draw) in the Republic of Ireland’s domestic top tier. Drogheda have won just one of their last five outings in the league (one win, two draws and two defeats). But the Co Louth outfit are unbeaten on their last six road trips in the league (two wins and four draws). Drogheda won the reverse fixture 2-1 at Hunky Dorys Park on Sunday 24 March.

RATEFORM PREDICTS: Away win.

SIMPLE POISSON MODEL PREDICTS: According to the goal probability distribution data, the most likely outcome is a 2-1 win to Drogheda. There is a 9.1 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 9pc probability of a 2-0 win to Drogheda. There is only a 6.8pc chance Drogheda will get no goals.

SCORE PREDICTION HEURISTIC SUGGESTS: Away win, 2-0 (9pc) and borderline 3-0 (8pc).

MICK CONROY PREDICTS: Draw.

OVER/UNDER 2.5-GOAL RATIO: 64.3 per cent (decimal odds 1.56) of the sides’ combined total of games in the league have ended in Over 2.5 goals. 35.7pc (2.8 in decimal odds) have resulted in Under 2.5 goals.

OVERALL OBSERVATION/RECOMMENDATION: irishfootieindex is happy to recommend Over 2.5 goals (1.72, Paddy Power) and Drogheda to win (2.0, Paddy Power).

Airtricity League Premier Division

Friday 24 May 2013

Derry City v Cork City, Brandywell (7.45pm GMT)

It is 12 seasons since Derry recorded back-to-back wins over a Cork side in the league. Having won 1-0 at Turner’s Cross on Sunday 24 March, when leading marksman Rory Patterson netted a last-minute winner, they can put that right today (Friday 24 May). Patterson, who was sent-off in the EA Sports Cup victory against north-west neighbours Finn Harps at Finn Park, Ballybofey on Monday (20 May), is free to play as the suspension applies to that competition, not the league. Six of the sides’ last seven meetings in the league have ended in Under 2.5 goals, as have the last three matches on Foyleside. Cork have lost four of their last six games in the league. But the Leesiders have won their last three road trips (two in the league and one in the EA Sports Cup).

RATEFORM PREDICTS: Home win.

SIMPLE POISSON MODEL PREDICTS: According to the goal probability distribution data, the most likely outcome is a 2-0 win to Derry. There is an 11.1 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 25.7pc chance Derry will score precisely two goals. There is a 21.3pc probability they will score exactly three. There is a 43pc chance Cork will get no goals. There is a 36.3pc probability they will score precisely one. There is a 7.7pc probability of a 3-1 win to Derry. So you could also make a case for Derry to score three and Cork to score one, as opposed to it finishing 2-0 to the Candystripes.

SCORE PREDICTION HEURISTIC SUGGESTS: Home win, 1-0 (8.9pc), or borderline 2-1 (9.3pc).

MICK CONROY PREDICTS: Home win.

OVER/UNDER 2.5-GOAL RATIO: 53.6 per cent (decimal odds 1.87) of the sides’ combined total of games in the league have ended in Over 2.5 goals. 46.4pc (2.15 in decimal odds) have resulted in Under 2.5 goals.

OVERALL OBSERVATION/RECOMMENDATION: All three of our predictive methods favour a win for Derry, as does out resident analyst Mick Conroy. irishfootieindex is happy to recommend Over 2.5 goals (1.72, Paddy Power) and Derry to win (1.61, Paddy Power). You should bear in mind though that the 1.72 Paddy Power go about Over 2.5 goals does not represent ‘fair odds’ according to our calculations.

Airtricity League Premier Division

Friday 24 May 2013

Dundalk v UCD, Oriel Park (7.45pm GMT)

Four of the sides’ last five meetings in the league have ended in Over 2.5 goals. UCD are unbeaten in three games in the 12-team Airtricity League Premier Division (ALPD). It is their longest unbeaten sequence of the season. UCD’s first eight games of 2013 (in all competitions) all ended in Over 2.5 goals. Only two of their last seven matches (all league) have ended in three or more goals as their results have improved. Having failed to win any of their first five home league games of the campaign, Dundalk have won the last two. Dundalk won the reverse fixture 2-1 at UCD Bowl on Saturday 23 March.

RATEFORM PREDICTS: Home win/draw.

SIMPLE POISSON MODEL PREDICTS: According to the goal probability distribution data, the most likely outcome is a 2-0 win to Dundalk. There is a 10.9 per cent chance of such an occurrence. While there is a 40.7pc probability UCD will get no goals, there is a 36.6pc chance they will score precisely one. So you cannot rule out the possibility of them getting on the scoresheet at Oriel Park.

SCORE PREDICTION HEURISTIC SUGGESTS: Home win, 1-0 (9.8pc).

MICK CONROY PREDICTS: Draw.

OVER/UNDER 2.5-GOAL RATIO: 59.1 per cent (decimal odds 1.69) of the sides’ combined total of games in the league have ended in Over 2.5 goals. 40.9pc (2.44 in decimal odds) have resulted in Under 2.5 goals.

OVERALL OBSERVATION/RECOMMENDATION: irishfootieindex is happy to recommend Over 2.5 goals (1.72, Paddy Power).

Airtricity League Premier Division

Friday 24 May 2013

Shamrock Rovers v Shelbourne, Tallaght Stadium (8pm GMT)

Shamrock Rovers are unbeaten in the sides’ last four meetings in the league (two wins and two draws). The Hoops are unbeaten in six games (three wins and three draws) in all competitions. They have not conceded a goal in the first half of their last seven matches (again, in all competitions). The reverse fixture, at Tolka Park on Sunday 29 March, ended in a 0-0 draw. Shelbourne have lost their last three matches in the league. There has yet to be more than one goal scored in the first half of any of Shelbourne’s 15 games (all competitions) this season.

RATEFORM PREDICTS: Home win

SIMPLE POISSON MODEL PREDICTS: According to the goal probability distribution data, the most likely outcome is either a 1-0 or 2-0 win to Shamrock Rovers. There is a 24.9 per cent chance of the game ending in a 1-0 win to Rovers. There is a 21.3pc probability of the match ending in a 2-0 win to Rovers. There is a 31 per cent chance Rovers will score precisely one goal. There is a 26.4pc chance they will score exactly two. There is a 15pc probability they will score precisely three. There is an 80.5pc probability Shelbourne will get no goals.

SCORE PREDICTION HEURISTIC SUGGESTS: Home win, 2-0 (21.3pc), or borderline 3-0 (12.1pc).

MICK CONROY PREDICTS: Home win.

OVER/UNDER 2.5-GOAL RATIO: 32.1 per cent (decimal odds 3.11) of the sides’ combined total of games in the league have ended in Over 2.5 goals. 67.9pc (1.47 in decimal odds) have resulted in Under 2.5 goals.

OVERALL OBSERVATION/RECOMMENDATION: All three of our predictive methods, as well as our resident analyst Mick Conroy, favour a win for Shamrock Rovers. irishfootieindex is happy to recommend half-time/full-time Shamrock Rovers/Shamrock Rovers (1.66, Paddy Power) and Shamrock Rovers to win to nil (1.72, Paddy Power). The Over/Under 2.5-goal ratio strongly favours two or fewer goals but irishfootieindex will give this particular market a miss.

Airtricity League First Division

Friday 24 May 2013

Mervue United (3) v Longford Town (1), Fahy’s Field (7.45pm GMT)

It is third against first in the Republic of Ireland’s domestic eight-team second tier on Friday (24 May). A win for Mervue, who drew 1-1 at the City Calling Stadium in the reverse fixture on Saturday 6 April, would move the Galway side to within three points of the First Division pacesetters. While Longford were beaten 6-0 by Drogheda United in the EA Sports Cup second round tie at Hunky Dorys Park on Monday (20 May), manager Tony Cousins left out SEVEN of the side that started the 5-1 win against Cobh Ramblers at the City Calling Stadium in their previous game, in the Airtricity League First Division (ALFD) last Saturday (18 May), including leading marksman David O’Sullivan. The in-form striker has netted in NINE of 11 appearances this season. Mervue have won just two of their last nine games in all competitions (two wins, four draws and three defeats). Their 4-0 loss against Sligo Rovers in the EA Sports Cup second round at the Showgrounds on Monday (20 May) – when Barry O’Mahony was sent-off after only 18 minutes – was the first time they had suffered back-to-back defeats in 2013 (they were also beaten in their previous game, a 1-0 defeat by Finn Harps in Finn Park, Ballybofey on Friday 17 May in the ALFD). They are one of only two teams – Athlone Town are the other – yet to lose at home in the ALFD in 2013 (three wins and two draws).

RATEFORM PREDICTS: Away win.

POISSON DISTRIBUTION PREDICTS: According to the goal probability distribution data, the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw. There is a 9.6 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 30.9pc probability Mervue will score exactly one goal. There is a 31pc chance Longford will score precisely one goal. By the same token, there is a 26.4pc chance both sides will score exactly two. There is a 7pc probability of a 2-2 draw.

SOCCER PREDICTION HEURISTIC INDICATES: Away win, 3-2 (4pc).

OVER/UNDER RATIO: 63.6pc (1.57 in decimal odds) of the sides’ combined total of league games have ended in Over 2.5 goals. 36.4pc (2.75 in decimal odds) have resulted in Under 2.5 goals.

OVERALL OBSERVATION/RECOMMENDATION: None of the three predictive methods favour Mervue, despite being unbeaten at home in the league this season. irishfootieindex is happy to recommend either Longford to win (2.29, Paddy Power) or Longford draw/no bet (1.66, Paddy Power), BTTS (1.66, Paddy Power) and Over 2.5 goals (2.0, Paddy Power).

Airtricity League First Division

Friday 24 May 2013

Wexford Youths (5) v Finn Harps (2), Ferrycarrig Park (8pm GMT)

Wexford Youths are the only side in the Republic of Ireland’s domestic eight-team second tier yet to draw a match at home this season. Finn Harps have drawn three of their five road trips in the Airtricity League First Division (ALFD). Finn Harps are unbeaten in three league games (two wins and a draw). After beating Longford Town (3-2, City Calling Stadium, Saturday 11 May) and Mervue United (1-0, Finn Park, Ballybofey, Friday 17 May), the Donegal side are hoping to complete a hat-trick of league wins for the first time in 2013.

RATEFORM PREDICTS: Away win.

POISSON DISTRIBUTION PREDICTS: According to the goal probability distribution data, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win to Finn Harps. There is a 16 per cent chance of such an occurrence.

SOCCER PREDICTION HEURISTIC INDICATES: Draw, 1-1 (12.6pc).

OVER/UNDER RATIO: 50pc (2.0 in decimal odds) of the sides’ combined total of league games have ended in Over 2.5 goals. Likewise, 50pc (2.0 in decimal odds) have resulted in Under 2.5 goals.

OVERALL OBSERVATION/RECOMMENDATION: Two of our three predictive methods favour a Finn Harps win. The score prediction heuristic suggests a draw. On this basis, irishfootieindex is happy to recommend Finn Harps draw/no bet (1.66, Paddy Power).

Airtricity League First Division

Friday 24 May 2013

Cobh Ramblers (7) v Salthill Devon (8), St Colman’s Park (7.45pm GMT)

Cobh have failed to win their last five games in the eight-team Airtricity League First Division (three draws and two defeats). Both Cobh and their opposition have scored in nine of their 12 games (75 per cent occurrence rate) in all competitions this season. Both Salthill and their opposition have scored in eight of their 12 matches (66.7pc occurrence rate). Salthill have yet to win in 2013 in 12 games in all competitions (three draws and nine defeats).

RATEFORM PREDICTS: Home win.

POISSON DISTRIBUTION PREDICTS: According to the goal probability distribution data, the most likely outcome is a 3-1 win for Cobh. There is an 8.2 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is only a 4.8pc probability Cobh will get no goals. There is a 36.7pc chance Salthill will score precisely one goal.

SOCCER PREDICTION HEURISTIC INDICATES: Home win, 5-2 (2pc).

OVER/UNDER RATIO: 68.2pc (1.47 in decimal odds) of the sides’ combined total of league games have ended in Over 2.5 goals. 31.8pc (3.14 in decimal odds) have resulted in Under 2.5 goals.

OVERALL OBSERVATION/RECOMMENDATION: All three predictive methods favour a Cobh win. On this basis, irishfootieindex is happy to recommend Cobh to win (2.0, Paddy Power), BTTS and Over 2.5 goals.

Airtricity League First Division

Friday 24 May 2013

Athlone Town (4) v Waterford United (6), Athlone Town Stadium (7.45pm GMT)

Athlone are unbeaten in their last four games in the Republic of Ireland’s domestic eight-team second tier (two wins and two draws). It is their longest unbeaten sequence of the campaign. They are also unbeaten at the Athlone Town Stadium in 2013 (two wins and three draws). Mervue United are the only other team of the eight second-tier sides yet to lose at home this season. Waterford have failed to win their last four games in all competitions (three in the league).

RATEFORM PREDICTS: Away win.

POISSON DISTRIBUTION PREDICTS: According to the goal probability distribution data, the most likely outcome is a 1-0 win to Athlone. There is a 20.2 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 61.7pc probability Waterford will get no goals.

SOCCER PREDICTION HEURISTIC INDICATES: Home win, either 1-0 (20.2pc) or 2-1 (7.6pc).

OVER/UNDER RATIO: 45.5pc (2.20 in decimal odds) of the sides’ combined total of league games have ended in Over 2.5 goals. 54.5pc (1.83 in decimal odds) have resulted in Under 2.5 goals.

OVERALL OBSERVATION/RECOMMENDATION: The Poisson distribution and score prediction heuristic favour an Athlone win. Rateform, which is still influenced by the 2012 data, suggests a victory for Waterford. The score prediction heuristic tracks the shorter-term trends and is more relevant as far as irishfootieindex is concerned, certainly in this particular instance. On this basis, irishfootieindex is happy to recommend either Athlone to win (2.37, Paddy Power) or Athlone draw/no bet (1.66, Paddy Power). Your selection, in part, will probably be influenced by whether you are more of a risk taker or whether you are more risk-averse.